MISSING BUYERS

The document discusses the recent decline in home sales, attributing it to several factors including a hesitance among first-time home buyers (FTHBs) due to economic uncertainties, a growing number of listings primarily from repeat buyers who are not finding buyers for their homes, and larger market dynamics such as investor sentiment. The author remains skeptical that the observed tariffs fully explain the slowdown in sales, suggesting that various housing policies and economic conditions contribute significantly to the current real estate climate.

Key Points

Home sales in March decreased by approximately 13% year-over-year, indicating a concerning trend for future transactions.
First-time home buyers (FTHBs) are particularly cautious due to financial uncertainty and lack of job security, which makes them hesitant to enter the market.
Repeat buyers have more financial stability, often due to accumulated equity, allowing them to wait for market conditions to improve before selling and buying again.
Data show an increase in new listings, suggesting that repeat buyers are willing to enter the market as sellers, but potential buyers are scarce.
FTHBs constitute roughly 20% of the market, suggesting they alone cannot account for the significant decline in sales figures.
Investors, especially those not residing in their properties, might influence the sales decline by acting as net-sellers, contributing to high new listing levels.
Recent housing policies targeting investors, along with broader economic changes, could dissuade investor participation, compounding market challenges.